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Probability — Independent events and the multiplication law 37 problems

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Independent Events and the Multiplication Law

Independent events do not affect each other.

1. What are independent events?

Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not change the probability of the other.

If \(A\) and \(B\) are independent, then:

\[ P(A \mid B)=P(A) \qquad \text{and} \qquad P(B \mid A)=P(B) \]

So knowing that one event has happened gives no new information about the other.

2. The multiplication law

For independent events \(A\) and \(B\):

\[ P(A \text{ and } B)=P(A \cap B)=P(A)\times P(B) \]

We multiply the probabilities because the events do not affect each other.

3. Example

A fair coin is tossed and a fair die is rolled.

Let:

  • \(A\): getting heads
  • \(B\): getting a 6

These events are independent.

\[ P(A)=\frac{1}{2}, \qquad P(B)=\frac{1}{6} \]

So:

\[ P(A \cap B)=P(A)\times P(B)=\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{6}=\frac{1}{12} \]

4. Testing for independence

Two events \(A\) and \(B\) are independent if and only if:

\[ P(A \cap B)=P(A)\times P(B) \]

If this equality is not true, then the events are not independent.

5. Exam tips

  • Look for situations where one result does not affect the other.
  • For independent events, use multiplication.
  • Do not confuse independent with mutually exclusive.
  • Mutually exclusive events with positive probability cannot be independent.
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