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The binomial and geometric distributions — The binomial distribution 106 problems

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The Binomial Distribution (AS Statistics)

The binomial distribution models the number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials.

1. Binomial Experiment

A binomial experiment has four conditions:

  • A fixed number of trials \(n\)
  • Each trial has two possible outcomes (success or failure)
  • The probability of success \(p\) is constant
  • Trials are independent

If a random variable \(X\) counts the number of successes:

\(X \sim B(n,p)\)

2. Binomial Probability Formula

The probability of exactly \(r\) successes is:

P(X=r)=\binom{n}{r}p^r(1-p)^{n-r}
  • \(n\) = number of trials
  • \(r\) = number of successes
  • \(p\) = probability of success

3. Mean and Variance

If \(X \sim B(n,p)\):

  • Mean: \( \mu = np \)
  • Variance: \( \sigma^2 = np(1-p) \)
  • Standard deviation: \( \sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} \)

4. Worked Example

A biased coin has probability \(p=0.6\) of landing heads.

The coin is tossed \(n=5\) times.

Let \(X\) be the number of heads.

\(X \sim B(5,0.6)\)

Find \(P(X=3)\).

Step 1: Substitute into formula

\[ P(X=3) = \binom{5}{3}(0.6)^3(0.4)^2 \]

Step 2: Calculate

\[ \binom{5}{3} = 10 \] \[ P(X=3) = 10(0.216)(0.16) \]
\[ P(X=3) = 0.3456 \]

5. Using Mean and Variance

If \(X \sim B(20,0.3)\):

Mean:

\[ \mu = np = 20(0.3) = 6 \]

Variance:

\[ \sigma^2 = np(1-p) = 20(0.3)(0.7) = 4.2 \]

Standard deviation:

\[ \sigma = \sqrt{4.2} \approx 2.05 \]

6. Exam Tips

  • Always define the random variable clearly.
  • Write the distribution: \(X \sim B(n,p)\).
  • Use the correct binomial formula or calculator.
  • Remember that \(q = 1-p\).
  • Check that trials are independent before using a binomial model.
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