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The binomial distribution — 9709 S1

Recognise repeated Bernoulli trials and evaluate exact probabilities.

Notes and key methods

For \(X\sim\operatorname{Bin}(n,p)\), \(P(X=r)=\binom nrp^r(1-p)^{n-r}\), \(E(X)=np\), and \(\operatorname{Var}(X)=np(1-p)\).

The trials must have two outcomes, a fixed number of trials, constant success probability and independence. Translate words such as fewer than, at most and at least into integer limits before summing.

Check the conditions

Three worked examples

Example 1 · Binomial probabilities

Independent trials have constant success probability \(\frac{2}{5}\). Let X count the successes in 7 trials.

  1. Find P(X=2).
  2. Find P(X at least 2).
  3. Find E(X).
  4. Find Var(X).
Show the reasoning

(a)

\(\binom{7}2p^2(1-p)^{5}=\frac{20412}{78125}\)

Answer: \(\frac{20412}{78125}\).

(b)

\(1-P(X=0)-P(X=1)=\frac{65732}{78125}\)

Answer: \(\frac{65732}{78125}\).

(c)

\(np=\frac{14}{5}\)

Answer: \(\frac{14}{5}\).

(d)

\(np(1-p)=\frac{42}{25}\)

Answer: \(\frac{42}{25}\).

Example 2 · Binomial probabilities

Independent trials have constant success probability \(\frac{1}{2}\). Let X count the successes in 8 trials.

  1. Find P(X=2).
  2. Find P(X at least 2).
  3. Find E(X).
  4. Find Var(X).
Show the reasoning

(a)

\(\binom{8}2p^2(1-p)^{6}=\frac{7}{64}\)

Answer: \(\frac{7}{64}\).

(b)

\(1-P(X=0)-P(X=1)=\frac{247}{256}\)

Answer: \(\frac{247}{256}\).

(c)

\(np=4\)

Answer: \(4\).

(d)

\(np(1-p)=2\)

Answer: \(2\).

Example 3 · Binomial probabilities

Independent trials have constant success probability \(\frac{1}{5}\). Let X count the successes in 9 trials.

  1. Find P(X=2).
  2. Find P(X at least 2).
  3. Find E(X).
  4. Find Var(X).
Show the reasoning

(a)

\(\binom{9}2p^2(1-p)^{7}=\frac{589824}{1953125}\)

Answer: \(\frac{589824}{1953125}\).

(b)

\(1-P(X=0)-P(X=1)=\frac{1101157}{1953125}\)

Answer: \(\frac{1101157}{1953125}\).

(c)

\(np=\frac{9}{5}\)

Answer: \(\frac{9}{5}\).

(d)

\(np(1-p)=\frac{36}{25}\)

Answer: \(\frac{36}{25}\).

Common mistakes

Practise with answer checking

Original exam-style problems

Write complete solutions before opening the worked solution. The marking guidance rewards reasoning as well as answers.

Examination practice · 2020–2026

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