June 2019 p62 q3
3083
The probability that Janice will buy an item online in any week is 0.35. Janice does not buy more than one item online in any week.
The probability that Janice buys at least one item online in a period of n weeks is greater than 0.99. Find the smallest possible value of n.
Solution
The probability that Janice does not buy an item online in any week is given by:
\(1 - 0.35 = 0.65\)
The probability that Janice does not buy any item online in n weeks is:
\((0.65)^n\)
The probability that Janice buys at least one item online in n weeks is greater than 0.99, so:
\(1 - (0.65)^n > 0.99\)
Rearranging gives:
\((0.65)^n < 0.01\)
Taking logarithms on both sides:
\(n \log(0.65) < \log(0.01)\)
Solving for n gives:
\(n > \frac{\log(0.01)}{\log(0.65)} \approx 10.69\)
Since n must be an integer, the smallest possible value of n is 11.
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