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Nov 2003 p6 q4
3059
Single cards, chosen at random, are given away with bars of chocolate. Each card shows a picture of one of 20 different football players. Richard needs just one picture to complete his collection. He buys 5 bars of chocolate and looks at all the pictures. Find the probability that
Richard does not complete his collection,
he has the required picture exactly once,
he completes his collection with the third picture he looks at.
Solution
Let the probability of getting the required picture be 0.05 (since there is 1 desired picture out of 20).
The probability that Richard does not complete his collection is calculated by not getting the required picture in all 5 attempts:
\((0.95)^5 = 0.774\)
The probability that he has the required picture exactly once is calculated using the binomial probability formula:
The probability that he completes his collection with the third picture he looks at is calculated by not getting the picture in the first two attempts and getting it on the third: