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Nov 2002 p6 q5
2650
Rachel and Anna play each other at badminton. Each game results in either a win for Rachel or a win for Anna. The probability of Rachel winning the first game is 0.6. If Rachel wins a particular game, the probability of her winning the next game is 0.7, but if she loses, the probability of her winning the next game is 0.4. By using a tree diagram, or otherwise,
find the conditional probability that Rachel wins the first game, given that she loses the second,
find the probability that Rachel wins 2 games and loses 1 game out of the first three games they play.
Solution
(i) To find the conditional probability that Rachel wins the first game given that she loses the second, we use the formula for conditional probability: