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June 2009 p6 q5
2640
At a zoo, rides are offered on elephants, camels and jungle tractors. Ravi has money for only one ride. To decide which ride to choose, he tosses a fair coin twice. If he gets 2 heads he will go on the elephant ride, if he gets 2 tails he will go on the camel ride and if he gets 1 of each he will go on the jungle tractor ride.
(i) Find the probabilities that he goes on each of the three rides.
The probabilities that Ravi is frightened on each of the rides are as follows:
(ii) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram showing the rides that Ravi could take and whether or not he is frightened.
Ravi goes on a ride.
(iii) Find the probability that he is frightened.
(iv) Given that Ravi is not frightened, find the probability that he went on the camel ride.
Solution
(i) The probability of getting 2 heads (HH) is \(\frac{1}{4}\), so \(P(E) = \frac{1}{4}\). The probability of getting 2 tails (TT) is \(\frac{1}{4}\), so \(P(C) = \frac{1}{4}\). The probability of getting 1 head and 1 tail (HT or TH) is \(\frac{1}{2}\), so \(P(JT) = \frac{1}{2}\).
(ii) The tree diagram is as follows:
1/4
E
6/10
F
4/10
NF
1/4
C
7/10
F
3/10
NF
1/2
JT
8/10
F
2/10
NF
(iii) The probability that Ravi is frightened is calculated by summing the probabilities of being frightened on each ride: