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Nov 2010 p63 q3
2633
It was found that 68% of the passengers on a train used a cell phone during their train journey. Of those using a cell phone, 70% were under 30 years old, 25% were between 30 and 65 years old and the rest were over 65 years old. Of those not using a cell phone, 26% were under 30 years old and 64% were over 65 years old.
(i) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information, giving all probabilities as decimals.
(ii) Given that one of the passengers is 45 years old, find the probability of this passenger using a cell phone during the journey.
Solution
(i) The tree diagram is structured as follows:
First branch: Probability of using a cell phone (Ph) = 0.68, not using a cell phone (NPh) = 0.32.
Second branch for Ph: Young (Y) = 0.7, Middle-aged (M) = 0.25, Old (O) = 0.05.
Second branch for NPh: Young (Y) = 0.26, Middle-aged (M) = 0.10, Old (O) = 0.64.
(ii) To find the probability that a passenger aged 45 (middle-aged) uses a cell phone, use conditional probability: