Exam-Style Problem

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Nov 2012 p61 q6
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Ana meets her friends once every day. For each day the probability that she is early is 0.05 and the probability that she is late is 0.75. Otherwise she is on time.

If she is early there is a probability of 0.7 that she will eat a banana. If she is late she does not eat a banana. If she is on time there is a probability of 0.4 that she will eat a banana. Given that for one particular meeting with friends she does not eat a banana, find the probability that she is on time.

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