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June 2013 p61 q7
2628
Box A contains 8 white balls and 2 yellow balls. Box B contains 5 white balls and x yellow balls. A ball is chosen at random from box A and placed in box B. A ball is then chosen at random from box B. The tree diagram below shows the possibilities for the colours of the balls chosen.
(i) Justify the probability \(\frac{x}{x+6}\) on the tree diagram.
(ii) Copy and complete the tree diagram.
(iii) If the ball chosen from box A is white then the probability that the ball chosen from box B is also white is \(\frac{1}{3}\). Show that the value of \(x\) is 12.
(iv) Given that the ball chosen from box B is yellow, find the conditional probability that the ball chosen from box A was yellow.
Solution
(i) The total number of balls in box B after transferring one ball from box A is \(5 + x + 1 = x + 6\). Therefore, the probability of choosing a yellow ball from box B is \(\frac{x}{x+6}\).
(ii) The tree diagram is completed as follows: From box A to box B: - White to White: \(\frac{6}{x+6}\) - White to Yellow: \(\frac{x}{x+6}\) - Yellow to White: \(\frac{5}{x+6}\) - Yellow to Yellow: \(\frac{x+1}{x+6}\).
(iii) Given that the probability of choosing a white ball from box B after a white ball from box A is \(\frac{1}{3}\), we have: \(\frac{6}{x+6} = \frac{1}{3}\) Solving for \(x\): \(6 = \frac{x+6}{3}\) \(18 = x + 6\) \(x = 12\).
(iv) To find the conditional probability that the ball chosen from box A was yellow given that the ball chosen from box B is yellow, we use: \(P(A_Y | B_Y) = \frac{P(A_Y \cap B_Y)}{P(B_Y)}\) \(P(B_Y) = \frac{8}{10} \times \frac{12}{18} + \frac{2}{10} \times \frac{13}{18} = \frac{61}{90}\) \(P(A_Y \cap B_Y) = \frac{2}{10} \times \frac{13}{18} = \frac{13}{90}\) \(P(A_Y | B_Y) = \frac{13/90}{61/90} = \frac{13}{61}\).