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June 2013 p63 q5
2625
John plays two games of squash. The probability that he wins his first game is 0.3. If he wins his first game, the probability that he wins his second game is 0.6. If he loses his first game, the probability that he wins his second game is 0.15. Given that he wins his second game, find the probability that he won his first game.
Solution
Let \(W_1\) be the event that John wins his first game and \(W_2\) be the event that he wins his second game.
The probability that John wins his second game, \(P(W_2)\), can be calculated as:
\(P(W_2) = P(W_1 \cap W_2) + P(L_1 \cap W_2)\)
\(= 0.3 \times 0.6 + 0.7 \times 0.15\)
\(= 0.18 + 0.105\)
\(= 0.285\)
We need to find \(P(W_1 | W_2)\), the probability that John won his first game given that he won his second game. This is given by:
\(P(W_1 | W_2) = \frac{P(W_1 \cap W_2)}{P(W_2)}\)
\(= \frac{0.18}{0.285}\)
\(= 0.632\)
Thus, the probability that John won his first game given that he won his second game is \(0.632\) or \(\frac{12}{19}\).