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Feb/Mar 2016 p62 q5
2613
In a certain town, 35% of the people take a holiday abroad and 65% take a holiday in their own country. Of those going abroad 80% go to the seaside, 15% go camping and 5% take a city break. Of those taking a holiday in their own country, 20% go to the seaside and the rest are divided equally between camping and a city break.
A person is chosen at random. Given that the person chosen goes camping, find the probability that the person goes abroad.
Solution
Let:
\(A\) be the event that a person goes abroad.
\(C\) be the event that a person goes camping.
We need to find \(P(A \mid C)\), the probability that a person goes abroad given that they go camping.
Using the formula for conditional probability:
\(P(A \mid C) = \frac{P(A \cap C)}{P(C)}\)
Calculate \(P(A \cap C)\):
\(P(A \cap C) = P(A) \times P(C \mid A) = 0.35 \times 0.15 = 0.0525\)
Calculate \(P(C)\):
\(P(C) = P(A \cap C) + P(H \cap C)\)
Where \(H\) is the event of taking a holiday in their own country.