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Nov 2016 p61 q6
2610
Deeti has 3 red pens and 1 blue pen in her left pocket and 3 red pens and 1 blue pen in her right pocket. 'Operation T' consists of Deeti taking one pen at random from her left pocket and placing it in her right pocket, then taking one pen at random from her right pocket and placing it in her left pocket.
(i) Find the probability that, when Deeti carries out operation T, she takes a blue pen from her left pocket and then a blue pen from her right pocket.
The random variable X is the number of blue pens in Deeti's left pocket after carrying out operation T.
\((ii) Find P(X = 1).\)
(iii) Given that the pen taken from Deeti's right pocket is blue, find the probability that the pen taken from Deeti's left pocket is blue.
Solution
(i) The probability of taking a blue pen from the left pocket is \(\frac{1}{4}\). After moving this pen to the right pocket, the probability of taking a blue pen from the right pocket is \(\frac{2}{5}\). Therefore, the probability is \(\frac{1}{4} \times \frac{2}{5} = \frac{1}{10}\).
(ii) To have 1 blue pen in the left pocket after operation T, either a red pen is moved from left to right and a red pen is moved back, or a blue pen is moved from left to right and a blue pen is moved back. The probability of moving a red pen from left to right is \(\frac{3}{4}\) and then moving a red pen back is \(\frac{4}{5}\). The probability of moving a blue pen from left to right and then moving a blue pen back is \(\frac{1}{10}\). Thus, \(P(X = 1) = \frac{3}{4} \times \frac{4}{5} + \frac{1}{10} = \frac{14}{20} = \frac{7}{10}\).
(iii) Given that a blue pen is taken from the right pocket, the probability that a blue pen was initially taken from the left pocket is \(\frac{P(B \cap B)}{P(B)} = \frac{1/10}{3/4 \times 1/5 + 1/4 \times 2/5} = \frac{1/10}{1/5} = \frac{2}{5}\).