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Nov 2016 p62 q1
2609
When Anya goes to school, the probability that she walks is 0.3 and the probability that she cycles is 0.65; if she does not walk or cycle she takes the bus. When Anya walks the probability that she is late is 0.15. When she cycles the probability that she is late is 0.1 and when she takes the bus the probability that she is late is 0.6. Given that Anya is late, find the probability that she cycles.
Solution
Let \(W\), \(C\), and \(B\) represent the events that Anya walks, cycles, and takes the bus, respectively. Let \(L\) represent the event that Anya is late.
The probability that Anya cycles and is late is \(P(C \cap L) = P(C) \times P(L \mid C) = 0.65 \times 0.1 = 0.065\).
The total probability that Anya is late, \(P(L)\), is given by: