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June 2017 p62 q7
2607
During the school holidays, each day Khalid either rides on his bicycle with probability 0.6, or on his skateboard with probability 0.4. Khalid does not ride on both on the same day. If he rides on his bicycle then the probability that he hurts himself is 0.05. If he rides on his skateboard the probability that he hurts himself is 0.75.
(i) Find the probability that Khalid hurts himself on any particular day.
(ii) Given that Khalid hurts himself on a particular day, find the probability that he is riding on his skateboard.
Solution
(i) Let \(P(BH)\) be the probability that Khalid hurts himself while riding his bicycle, and \(P(SH)\) be the probability that he hurts himself while riding his skateboard. We have:
\(P(BH) = 0.6 \times 0.05 = 0.03\)
\(P(SH) = 0.4 \times 0.75 = 0.3\)
The probability that Khalid hurts himself on any particular day is:
\(P(H) = P(BH) + P(SH) = 0.03 + 0.3 = 0.33\)
(ii) We need to find \(P(S|H)\), the probability that Khalid is riding on his skateboard given that he hurts himself. Using the formula for conditional probability: