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June 2019 p63 q2
2597
Megan sends messages to her friends in one of 3 different ways: text, email or social media. For each message, the probability that she uses text is 0.3 and the probability that she uses email is 0.2. She receives an immediate reply from a text message with probability 0.4, from an email with probability 0.15 and from social media with probability 0.6.
(i) Draw a fully labelled tree diagram to represent this information.
(ii) Given that Megan does not receive an immediate reply to a message, find the probability that the message was an email.
Solution
(i) The tree diagram is drawn with the following branches:
First set of branches for the type of message: text (0.3), email (0.2), social media (0.5).
Second set of branches for replies:
Text: reply (0.4), no reply (0.6).
Email: reply (0.15), no reply (0.85).
Social media: reply (0.6), no reply (0.4).
(ii) To find the probability that the message was an email given no immediate reply, use Bayes' theorem: