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Nov 2020 p52 q4
2590
In a certain country, the weather each day is classified as fine or rainy. The probability that a fine day is followed by a fine day is 0.75 and the probability that a rainy day is followed by a fine day is 0.4. The probability that it is fine on 1 April is 0.8. The tree diagram below shows the possibilities for the weather on 1 April and 2 April.
(a) Complete the tree diagram to show the probabilities.
(b) Find the probability that 2 April is fine.
Let \(X\) be the event that 1 April is fine and \(Y\) be the event that 3 April is rainy.
(c) Find the value of \(P(X \cap Y)\).
(d) Find the probability that 1 April is fine given that 3 April is rainy.
Solution
(a) The tree diagram is completed with the following probabilities:
1 April Fine to 2 April Fine: 0.75
1 April Fine to 2 April Rainy: 0.25
1 April Rainy to 2 April Fine: 0.4
1 April Rainy to 2 April Rainy: 0.6
(b) The probability that 2 April is fine is calculated as follows: