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Feb/Mar 2021 p52 q2
2589
Georgie has a red scarf, a blue scarf and a yellow scarf. Each day she wears exactly one of these scarves. The probabilities for the three colours are 0.2, 0.45 and 0.35 respectively. When she wears a red scarf, she always wears a hat. When she wears a blue scarf, she wears a hat with probability 0.4. When she wears a yellow scarf, she wears a hat with probability 0.3.
(a) Find the probability that on a randomly chosen day Georgie wears a hat.
(b) Find the probability that on a randomly chosen day Georgie wears a yellow scarf given that she does not wear a hat.
Solution
(a) To find the probability that Georgie wears a hat, we calculate the total probability of wearing a hat with each scarf: