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Feb/Mar 2023 p52 q4
2567
The probability that it will rain on any given day is x. If it is raining, the probability that Aran wears a hat is 0.8 and if it is not raining, the probability that he wears a hat is 0.3. Whether it is raining or not, if Aran wears a hat, the probability that he wears a scarf is 0.4. If he does not wear a hat, the probability that he wears a scarf is 0.1. The probability that on a randomly chosen day it is not raining and Aran is not wearing a hat or a scarf is 0.36.
Find the value of x.
Solution
Let the probability that it is not raining be \(1 - x\).
The probability that Aran does not wear a hat when it is not raining is \(1 - 0.3 = 0.7\).
The probability that Aran does not wear a scarf when he does not wear a hat is \(1 - 0.1 = 0.9\).
The probability that it is not raining and Aran is not wearing a hat or a scarf is given by: