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June 2023 p52 q2
2556
A sports event is taking place for 4 days, beginning on Sunday. The probability that it will rain on Sunday is 0.4. On any subsequent day, the probability that it will rain is 0.7 if it rained on the previous day and 0.2 if it did not rain on the previous day.
(a) Find the probability that it does not rain on any of the 4 days of the event.
(b) Find the probability that the first day on which it rains during the event is Tuesday.
(c) Find the probability that it rains on exactly one of the 4 days of the event.
Solution
(a) The probability that it does not rain on Sunday is \(0.6\). If it does not rain on any day, the probability for each subsequent day is \(0.8\). Therefore, the probability that it does not rain on any of the 4 days is:
(b) The probability that it does not rain on Sunday is \(0.6\). The probability that it rains on Tuesday, given it did not rain on Monday, is \(0.2\). Therefore, the probability that the first day it rains is Tuesday is:
\(0.6 \times 0.8 \times 0.2 = \frac{12}{125}\)
(c) The probability that it rains on exactly one of the 4 days can be calculated by considering the scenarios where it rains on one specific day and not on the others. The scenarios are: