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Modelling with the normal distribution — 9709 S1

Solve two quantile equations for an unknown mean and standard deviation.

Notes and key methods

If \(\displaystyle P(X\le a)=\Phi (z_{1})\) and \(\displaystyle P(X\le b)=\Phi (z_{2})\) under a normal model, then \(\displaystyle a=\mu +z_{1}\sigma\) and \(\displaystyle b=\mu +z_{2}\sigma\). Subtract to obtain \(\displaystyle \sigma = \frac{b- a}{z_{2}- z_{1}}\), then find μ.

Use the fitted distribution only after checking σ>0 and whether the normal model is plausible for the context. Quantiles of the data and z quantiles are on different scales.

Check the conditions

Three worked examples

Example 1 · Fitting a normal model

A normal X satisfies \(\displaystyle P(X\le \frac{59}{2})= \Phi (- \frac{1}{2}), \ P(X\le \frac{173}{5})= \Phi (\frac{6}{5})\). Here Φ is the standard normal CDF.

  1. Find the standard deviation of X.
  2. Find the mean of X.
  3. Find P(X>40).
  4. Find the 90th percentile of X.
Show the reasoning

(a)

\(\displaystyle \sigma = \frac{b- a}{z_{2}- z_{1}}= 3\)

Answer: \(3\).

(b)

\(\mu=a-z_1\sigma=31\)

Answer: \(31\).

(c)

\(\displaystyle 1- \Phi (\frac{40- 31}{3})= 0.00134989803163009\)

Answer: \(0.00134989803163009\).

(d)

\(\mu+z_{0.9}\sigma=34.8446546966338\)

Answer: \(34.8446546966338\).

Example 2 · Fitting a normal model

A normal X satisfies \(\displaystyle P(X\le 30)= \Phi (- \frac{1}{2}), \ P(X\le \frac{184}{5})= \Phi (\frac{6}{5})\). Here Φ is the standard normal CDF.

  1. Find the standard deviation of X.
  2. Find the mean of X.
  3. Find P(X>40).
  4. Find the 90th percentile of X.
Show the reasoning

(a)

\(\displaystyle \sigma = \frac{b- a}{z_{2}- z_{1}}= 4\)

Answer: \(4\).

(b)

\(\mu=a-z_1\sigma=32\)

Answer: \(32\).

(c)

\(\displaystyle 1- \Phi (\frac{40- 32}{4})= 0.0227501319481792\)

Answer: \(0.0227501319481792\).

(d)

\(\mu+z_{0.9}\sigma=37.1262062621784\)

Answer: \(37.1262062621784\).

Example 3 · Fitting a normal model

A normal X satisfies \(\displaystyle P(X\le \frac{61}{2})= \Phi (- \frac{1}{2}), \ P(X\le 39)= \Phi (\frac{6}{5})\). Here Φ is the standard normal CDF.

  1. Find the standard deviation of X.
  2. Find the mean of X.
  3. Find P(X>40).
  4. Find the 90th percentile of X.
Show the reasoning

(a)

\(\displaystyle \sigma = \frac{b- a}{z_{2}- z_{1}}= 5\)

Answer: \(5\).

(b)

\(\mu=a-z_1\sigma=33\)

Answer: \(33\).

(c)

\(\displaystyle 1- \Phi (\frac{40- 33}{5})= 0.0807566592337711\)

Answer: \(0.0807566592337711\).

(d)

\(\mu+z_{0.9}\sigma=39.407757827723\)

Answer: \(39.407757827723\).

Common mistakes

Practise with answer checking

Original exam-style problems

Write complete solutions before opening the worked solution. The marking guidance rewards reasoning as well as answers.

Examination practice · 2020–2026

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