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9231 P21 - Jun 2018 - Q9 - 11 marks
6184

At a ski resort, the probability of snow on any particular day is constant and equal to \(p\). The skiing season begins on 1 November. The random variable \(X\) denotes the day of the skiing season on which the first snowfall occurs. (For example, if the first snowfall is on 5 November, then \(X=5\).) The variance of \(X\) is \(\frac{4}{9}\).
(i) Show that \(4 p^{2}+9 p-9=0\) and hence find the value of \(p\).

(ii) Find the probability that the first snowfall will be on 3 November.
(iii) Find the probability that the first snowfall will not be before 4 November.
(iv) Find the least integer \(N\) so that the probability of the first snowfall being on or before the \(N\) th day of November is more than 0.999 .

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