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Nov 2004 p6 q7
3345
In a certain village 28% of all cars are made by Ford.
A random sample of 50 cars in the village is taken. Estimate, using a normal approximation, the probability that more than 18 cars are made by Ford.
Solution
Let the random variable \(X\) represent the number of cars made by Ford in a sample of 50 cars. \(X\) follows a binomial distribution with parameters \(n = 50\) and \(p = 0.28\).
To use a normal approximation, we calculate the mean \(\mu\) and variance \(\sigma^2\) of the distribution:
\(\mu = 50 \times 0.28 = 14\)
\(\sigma^2 = 50 \times 0.28 \times 0.72 = 10.08\)
We apply a continuity correction to find \(P(X > 18)\), which is approximated by \(P(X > 18.5)\).
Standardize the variable:
\(Z = \frac{18.5 - 14}{\sqrt{10.08}} = 1.417\)
Using the standard normal distribution table, find \(\Phi(1.417) \approx 0.9218\) or \(0.9217\).