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Feb/Mar 2021 p52 q1
3099
A fair spinner with 5 sides numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 is spun repeatedly. The score on each spin is the number on the side on which the spinner lands.
(a) Find the probability that a score of 3 is obtained for the first time on the 8th spin.
(b) Find the probability that fewer than 6 spins are required to obtain a score of 3 for the first time.
Solution
(a) The probability of not getting a 3 on a single spin is \(\frac{4}{5}\). The probability of getting a 3 on the 8th spin for the first time is \(\left( \frac{4}{5} \right)^7 \times \frac{1}{5}\). This evaluates to \(\frac{16384}{390625}\) or approximately 0.0419.
(b) The probability of getting a 3 for the first time in fewer than 6 spins is the complement of not getting a 3 in the first 5 spins. This is calculated as:
\(1 - \left( \frac{4}{5} \right)^5\)
Alternatively, it can be calculated using the sum of probabilities for getting a 3 on each of the first 5 spins: