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Nov 2021 p52 q5
3095
In a certain region, the probability that any given day in October is wet is 0.16, independently of other days.
(b) Find the probability that the first wet day in October is 8 October.
(c) For 4 randomly chosen years, find the probability that in exactly 1 of these years the first wet day in October is 8 October.
Solution
(b) The probability that the first wet day is 8 October means that the first 7 days are dry and the 8th day is wet. The probability of a dry day is 1 - 0.16 = 0.84. Therefore, the probability is given by:
\((0.84)^7 \times 0.16 = 0.0472\)
(c) We need to find the probability that in exactly 1 out of 4 years, the first wet day is 8 October. Using the result from part (b), the probability for one year is 0.0472. The probability that this happens in exactly 1 out of 4 years is given by the binomial probability formula: